While it is said that the days follow one another, but do not resemble one another, those of the first quarter of this new year 2020 all seem to look very similar unfortunately. The news of each 24 hours relays the same information and the worries are growing over time. It is global health that is being weakened every day by the new virus known to everyone now. The African continent has not been spared.
The past few months have seen the Covid-19 outbreak spread around the world. This is what is happening on an international scale. All companies have therefore started by reviewing their forecasts for the current year, the first two months of which have been affected by the new virus. But others are more confident and are not giving up. Among these is the AllianceBernstein group. This is good news for its investors.
AllianceBernstein has not changed anything in its announcement of its forecast for global growth in the current fiscal year 2020. Indeed, the group forecasts that its global growth will be 2.4% for the current year (2020). The reason for this forecast stability is that this value has been set very cautiously.
Indeed, the concern of key policy makers was that it should reflect the fact that there are several headwinds that have always weighed on the outlook. Geopolitics and populism are examples. This way of setting objectives is, moreover, adopted by all companies. Those that do not exercise caution before disclosing their forecasts are exposed to phenomena such as coronavirus.
After the multiple damages caused by the coronavirus epidemic, China had to take fairly firm measures to put an end to this crisis. However, the end is not so close, as there are still people infected with the virus not only on Chinese soil, but also around the world. In addition, economic growth is expected to develop during the rest of this year, particularly in China.
It should be noted that the weaknesses observed in the first few days of the year have given way to another strong quarter according to the asset manager. Interpreting the data should therefore be more complicated, not only for decision-makers but also for the markets. Ingenuity, rigour and focus will be required to succeed in what can be a very difficult exercise. It is also necessary to use qualified people in the field.
It was a no-brainer for all economic analysts. Over the past month, the baseline scenario was that the Group's global growth would remain weak. Also, a recession was more likely than a reflation. In conclusion, AllianceBernstein affirmed that the balance of risks has been impacted and that the new virus has only strengthened the situation in this respect.