The current trend is still downward for the EUR/USD. However, we suggest you discover here some advice and our analysis of the situation of this cross according to the latest fundamental and technical indicators.
First of all, let's start with the fact that the EUR/USD was once again marked by a week of bearishness last week, and that the current chart configuration does not suggest that the situation could improve this week. The same goes for the fundamental data expected this week, which also has no possible indication of a rebound in this cross even though the U.S. market is closed on Monday.
Indeed, it is mainly due to the strength of the dollar that the euro has been losing points currently and for the past two weeks. The U.S. currency did indeed benefit from a number of interesting statistics last week.
If this week's first session is going to be quiet for the EUR/USD, we will follow the release of the Zew Economic Sentiment in Germany tomorrow morning with a consensus for a drop to 22 points which could weigh further on the euro.
During Wednesday's session, we'll be following closely the Building Permits, the PPI and the minutes of the last Fed meeting for U.S. data.
On Thursday, it will be the ECB's turn to capture the attention of investors around 1:30pm and just before the release of the Philadelphia Fed index expected at 4pm.
To conclude, this weekend's main focus will be on February's Preliminary Manufacturing PMI publications for Germany, as well as the Existing Home Sales in the United States.
Now let's look at the charts with the main technical signals regarding the EUR/USD and its likely evolution in the medium term. The immediate support represented by last week's various lows, just below the 1.0825 threshold and just before the psychological threshold of 1.0800, is particularly noteworthy.
In the case of an upward trend, the direct resistances at 1.0850 and 0.0865, just before the 100-hour moving average of 1.0875, will be followed. Thereafter and even higher, the psychological threshold of 1.0900 and the 200-hour moving average of 1.0925 will be followed. Should the euro/dollar exchange rate manage to hold above this threshold, the short-term downtrend will be weaker. However, only a return above the long term slant towards the 1.1040 level will allow us to forecast a bottom-up trend.