The OPEC World Oil Outlook 2020 report has just been published and indicates the outlook for the black gold market between now and 2045. The secretary general of the organization indicates there in particular that the market was strongly disrupted by the covid-19 pandemic and unveils his annual prospective report. While the previous report predicted a continued increase in demand, it now gives us a date for a peak by the late 2030s, to be followed by a stabilization at around 110 million barrels per day.
To justify its statements, OPEC takes into account in particular the growth that will struggle to recover after this crisis with only 0.7% per year by 2025 for OECD countries against 2.1% before the pandemic and only 3.4% per year in other countries, which is also less than previous forecasts. China and India together are expected to generate almost 40% of global GDP in 2045 and the OECD only 31% compared to 43% currently.
The number of people on Earth will be 9.5 billion and the number of vehicles on the road 2.6 billion with a daily primary energy consumption of 361.3 million barrels of oil. But only a quarter of this energy will come from black gold, the rest from gas and coal.
Oil demand from OECD countries is expected to fall by 13 million barrels per day before 2045, particularly in Europe. Non-OECD demand would continue to increase by 22.2 million barrels per day over the same period, more than half of which would come from India, followed by China and the rest from Asia. As for the sectors that will consume the most oil, we will find petrochemicals, aviation and road transport.
Another factor heralding the end of the rise in oil demand, the ecological and energy transition foresees in particular a 16% electrification of road transport with a world fleet of 2.6 billion vehicles, 430 million of which are electric at present, but which will become the majority by 2045, particularly among passenger vehicles, while commercial vehicles will remain predominantly thermal.
The power generation sector is also expected to reduce its demand for oil by 1.1 million barrels per day.
We also note that oil, like coal, is giving way to natural gas, which should increase from 25.1% to 25.3% in 2045, and also to nuclear power, which will increase from 5 to 6.1%. But it is above all the renewable energies that will benefit from this market transformation by going from 2.1 to 8.7% during this period and thus by the year 2045.