TOTAL

Analysis of Total share price

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The oil and energy markets are currently the most volatile and this is reflected on the price fluctuations of certain stock exchange shares. This is the case for example for Total Company shares upon which you can speculate using trading plateform, or even buy them through the online banks.

      Latest news

      A major new contract for Total in Iraq

      30/03/2021 - 08h05

      The Total group has just signed an agreement with Iraq to take charge of four large-scale energy projects, as announced in a press release yesterday.

      Elements that can influence the price of this asset:

      Analysis N°1

      First of all, it is of course essential that you closely monitor the share price movements of crude oil barrels, even though its impact cannot be moderated by the company’s strategy.

      Analysis N°2

      The Total company established in 2016 a cost-reduction plan with precise objectives for 2017 and 2018. It would be sensible to closely monitor the extent to which these objectives are fulfilled as well as the ones from the announced disposal program.

      Analysis N°3

      Even though Total’s refining and chemical activities have recently showed very low margins, the company is still trying to rectify this sector. It would be wise to follow up on the implications of this effort.

      Analysis N°4

      Total has also proceeded with major changes to its renewable energy sector, in particular through the takeover of the Saft company. It goes without saying that the profitability of this operation will have real influence on its stock price.

      Analysis N°5

      The relationship between Total and Iran which currently represents the world’s second biggest natural gas reserve will be a critical factor in the development of the company’s activities in this increasingly popular sector. Recently, the relationship seems to have improved.

      Analysis N°6

      Of course, you should also monitor any of the company’s further developments in activities related to renewable energy, in particular regarding solar energy. This line of business is very promising and should be beneficial to the company in the medium-to-long term if the company decides to keep investing and maintains its current positioning.

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      General presentation of Total

      The Total Company that we know today has not always existed in its current state. In fact, it is through the merger and acquisitions of the first company and others such as Petrofina and Elf Aquitaine that Total came into being. In the beginning the Total Company was called ‘Compagnie Française des pétroles’ (French Oil company).

      Since 2007 Total has been the largest French company as well as that with the highest share capital throughout the Euro zone.  It should also be noted that Total is also the fifth largest oil group behind Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco, Shell and BP. 

      The annual turnover of this company is around 10 billion Euros and its activities can be divided into several main sectors: 

      • The major activity sector of Total is of course the refining and distribution of crude oil which includes the trading and sea transport of petrol. The group actually includes 25 specialised refineries throughout the world and 16,000 petrol stations internationally. This sector represents the largest part of the company’s turnover.
      • The production and distribution of fuel are also two major activities of the Total Company. These are natural gas and coal with which we include transport, storage and sales activities. This part currently represents 15% of the company’s turnover.
      • Finally the last activity sector of the Total Company is the production of polyethylene and fertilizers.

      The oil production managed by Total is distributed throughout several continents principally Africa but also Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

      Analysis of Total share price
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      The major competitors of Total

      The Total Group is currently one of the five top global oil producers. It therefore has four direct competitors, all large companies in this sector. To assist you in trading effectively in the Total share price here are the details of its four major competitors:

      Royal Dutch Shell

      This group, based in the Netherlands, achieves over 272 billion dollars in annual turnover and produces more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.

      ExxonMobil

      Based in the United States, ExxonMobil currently produces over 4.1 million barrels per day and achieves an annual turnover of 268 billion dollars.

      BP

      This company, originating from Great Britain, achieves an annual turnover of 226 billion dollars and produces 3.3 million barrels per day.

      Chevron

      Situated in the United States, this company achieves a turnover of 138 billion dollars per year and produces over 2.6 billion barrels per day.

      The major partners of Total

      The Total group has also implemented strategic partnerships with certain companies such as:

      PSA

      Total became associated with PSA over 50 years ago and, in 2017, renewed this collaboration. Total is notably the sole supplier of engine lubricants to PSA factories.

      Samsung

      Total also created a partnership with the Samsung group related to the Asian market. Their collaborative company has exercised activities in the petrochemicals sector in South Korea for over ten years now.

      Petrobras

      In 2018, Total also announced the signing of a partnership agreement with this Brazilian group with the aim of developing projects on renewable energy and through a joint venture.

      Blablacar

      Finally, still in 2018, Total's subsidiary Total Spring also set up a partnership with Blablacar with the aim of allowing users of this service to benefit from discounts when signing up for their energy contracts.

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      The factors in favour of a rise in the Total share price:

      In order to buy Total shares online, it’s essential that you be convinced that this company is of real value. As you will quickly come to realise, as an asset, Total presents numerous advantages. Here are the company’s main advantages.

      First of all, the company’s position on the world oil market is of course of one its strengths. It should be noted that Total is part of the five biggest oil companies in the world. It’s also well positioned in the natural gas market and has been able to develop its solar energy production activity enough to become number two worldwide thanks to Sun Power subsidiary.

      Investors who follow Total stock also benefit from interesting visibility in terms of the company’s oil activities, seeing as it regularly discloses its production targets by number of barrels per annum. This way, you can see for yourself that production has strongly increased in 2017 in comparison with previous years along with an accelerated growth rate in 2016. Total doesn’t seem concerned by a possible decrease in production in 2018 or the years to come.

      Regarding the oil sector, the Total company has revealed one of the highest replacement rates on the market with respect to its reserves. As a matter of fact, this rate was of 107% in 2017 which means that the company’s production continues to grow and that demand remains strong.

      Another one of the company’s major advantages involves the distribution of its production activities. The company benefits from a good balance of production with 33% of its oil being produced in Angola and Nigeria and some other 14% in Norway. This way, it protects itself against eventual economic constraints generated by geopolitical developments.

      Recently, Total has established an industrial reorganisation of its activities which should pay off in the years to come. Thus, it has developed two new lines of business, namely its Gas Renewable & Power subsidiary which specialises in natural gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as Total Global Services which regroups several support activities. Additionally, it was decided that as part of this reorganisation the holding company should now refocus on its key strategic functions.

      It should be noted that Total, unlike other big oil companies, behaves particularly well when facing price cuts of crude oil. In such cases, the company practices decreasing important operational costs which allows it to protect its profits and thus keep its investors satisfied.

      The factors in favour of a drop in the Total share price:

      Of course, as you might expect, Total shares don’t only come with advantages to investors who wish to speculate on its development. As such, before you beginning analysing it, you should be familiar with its disadvantages. This is why we’d like to offer a detailed account of the company’s weaknesses and the factors which make this asset prone to deliver bearish signals.

      One of Total’s main weaknesses concerns, of course, its production and the elements to which it is exposed. Perhaps most notably, the increasingly important decline of oil fields which have reached maturity as well as the company’s struggle to set up new oil deposits. Of course, the quota variations enforced by OPEC are also an important constraint to the company.

      As mentioned above, Total has often succeeded in maintaining its investors’ trust even when the price of barrels of crude oil decline. However, the company has recently made important investments in the field of exploration, even though prices were on the rise. The profitability of these investments is thus menaced by the recent decline in the price of barrels.

      Another one of the company’s negative points concerns the structural crisis faced by the European refining industry which has recently had a tendency to remain stuck.

      Finally, even though Total produces its oil in different geographical zones and countries, it remains exposed to certain geopolitical risks, in particular regarding its African production which represents over 30% of the company’s total production, most notably in Nigeria, Lybia, Yemen or the Middle East. Russian production also remains to be closely monitored for the same reasons.

      The information supplied here is only for indicative purposes and should not be used without the completion of a comprehensive and complete fundamental analysis of this asset notably taking into account exterior data, future publications and announcements and all fundamental events and news that could influence the strengths and weaknesses or make them more or less significant. This information does not in any way constitute recommendations relating to the completion of transactions.

      Frequently Asked Questions

      What are the principal financial indicators for the Total share price?

      To closely monitor the activities of the Total Company, its profitability and the variations in its share price on the stock markets it is recommended to prioritise certain indicators. Among these we note the exchange rate between the dollar and the Euro, the price per barrel of Brent oil, the average price for the sale of petrol, the average price for the sale of gas and the margin on the variable costs of refining activities in Europe.

      Who are the shareholders of the Total Group?

      The major shareholders of the Total Group are the asset management company BlackRock which holds 6.3% of the shares, group employees that hold 4.8%, the Moller- Maersk AP Company with 3.70%, the Vanguard Group which holds 2.57% and Norges Bank Investment Management that holds 1.71%. 7.6% of the share capital of this company is held by individual shareholders of which 26.6% are in France.

      Is the Total share price correlated to the oil price?

      To trade effectively on the Total Company share price you will need to ensure you do not rely solely on the correlation between this asset and the price of WTI or Brent oil.  The petroleum companies such as Total in fact possess the financial capacities to cope with variations in the price of ‘black gold’ which is not the case for oil companies.

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